Abstract
As the global shift toward renewable energy accelerates, demand for critical minerals such as cobalt, lithium, and rare earth elements has surged. However, this transition has inadvertently fueled illicit mineral extraction, providing armed non-state actors with new revenue streams and exacerbating conflicts in resource-rich but fragile states. This study investigates how the energy transition reshapes the political economy of conflict financing through illicit mineral trade. Using a comparative case study approach, we examine the Democratic Republic of Congo, Myanmar, and Bolivia, mapping illicit supply chains via satellite imagery, trade flow data, and financial transaction analysis. Findings highlight the evolving role of transnational criminal networks, state complicity, and the geopolitical implications of securing critical minerals. The study provides policy recommendations for mitigating illicit trade while ensuring an equitable and conflict-free energy transition.
Author: Brianna Dickey (2025)
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