The international (in)security order and the climate-conflict-security nexus
Abstract Much existing research on climate, conflict, and security asks a relatively narrow question: how does climate change trigger or exacerbate violent conflict in ways that threaten stability within the current international system? Far less attention has been paid to how the properties of that system contribute to climate-related risks of violence, conflict, and instability. […]
The impacts of climate change on violent conflict risk: a review of causal pathways
Abstract The potential impacts of climate change on violent conflict are high on the agenda of scholars and policy makers. This article reviews existing literature to clarify the relationship between climate change and conflict risk, focusing on the roles of temperature and precipitation. While some debate remains, substantial evidence shows that climate change increases conflict […]
Climate change and peacebuilding: Sub-themes of an emerging research agenda
Abstract Climate change is having profound effects on global security and peacebuilding efforts. While existing research has mainly focused on the link between climate change and conflict, it has largely overlooked the complex interplay between climate change, conflict-affected states and peacebuilding. Climate change exacerbates existing vulnerabilities in conflict-affected societies by adding stress to livelihoods and […]
Stranded Assets, Stranded Workers: Labor Displacement and Conflict in Oil-Dependent Economies Under Decarbonization
Abstract As global efforts to phase out fossil fuels accelerate, oil-dependent economies face the dual challenge of managing stranded assets and displaced labor forces. This study investigates how declining fossil fuel revenues impact job markets, social stability, and conflict risk in transitioning economies. By examining case studies from Mexico, Angola, and Russia, the research explores […]
Resource Nationalism in the Green Energy Transition: The Case of Critical Minerals in Fragile States
Abstract As demand for critical minerals surges to support the global transition to renewable energy, resource-rich but politically fragile states are asserting greater control over extraction and trade. This paper examines the rise of resource nationalism in countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Indonesia, and Bolivia, where governments are renegotiating contracts, imposing export […]
Cross-Border Armed Groups and the Climate-Conflict Nexus: The Role of Resource Scarcity and Trade Routes
Abstract Climate-induced resource scarcity is reshaping transnational conflict dynamics, particularly in regions where armed groups rely on illicit trade routes for financing and logistics. This study examines how environmental stressors, such as droughts and desertification, influence the movement and operational strategies of cross-border armed groups in conflict-prone regions, including the Sahel, the Myanmar-Thailand border, and […]